Corona Virus

Discussion in 'The Chatterbox' started by Robert1955, Jan 31, 2020.

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  1. DaltonGang

    DaltonGang Ol' Itchy Whiskers

    I'm wondering if there are any longterm effects, from being exposed. A sneaky biologically weaponized virus would be very contagious, have mild symptoms, and render all those infected sterile. Eliminate a countries population, quietly, through sterility.
    Strictly hypothetical.
     
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  2. DaltonGang

    DaltonGang Ol' Itchy Whiskers

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  3. gorgo2

    gorgo2 geezerhood

    Starting to believe a lot of this is Bologna virus. Getting tired of it.
     
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  4. feeltheburn

    feeltheburn Well-Known Member

     
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  5. Shaver X

    Shaver X Well-Known Member

    It is not necessary to render people sterile when they can simply be liquidated. Russia, the United States, and presumably China all possess genetically engineered smallpox that is 100 percent fatal. Another genetically engineered malady causes people's hearts to beat so fast they die within minutes.

    What do you expect from a Communist government? This is an international socio-political movement that has killed over 100 million people in the last century. Dictatorships in general are more prone to coverups than moral rectitude.
     
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  6. gorgo2

    gorgo2 geezerhood

    "Small businesses are almost out of time

    https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/...most-out-of-time-and-it-matters-to-all-of-us/
     
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  7. barbersurgeon

    barbersurgeon Well-Known Member

    [​IMG]

    This is the current growth curve. Remember cases take 14 days to show symptoms, plus a day or two before someone is tested and gets the test results back. So there's an inherent lag time in reported cases from the time of infection. Most states did not lock down by 3/15. The resulting growth is directly related to semi-mitigated actions to "control" the virus spread. If we're real lucky, we should start to see the effects of more active role in separation and self control on the part of Americans. But it is probably going to be a week or two before we do. In that time, we'll likely be at 1,000,000+ cases.

    Hard hit areas already seeing shortages in Medical PPE, equipment and personnel will be reduced to third world standards of healthcare.

    Low estimates from the White House is 100,000 deaths.

    We won't be able to "reopen the economy" full scale for a while, otherwise we're back at 3/15 on the graph, starting with 1,000,000+ cases. It doesn't "go away" once we've flattened the curve. Herd immunity will take a significant amount of the population to have become infected, and recovered. If you open it back up, and Half the country contracts the virus, then your looking at the potential of 1,000,000- 3,300,000 deaths at a 2% rate. That's assuming we have the capacity to care for that many sick citizens, which we don't. So those numbers are likely low in a uncontrolled spread situation.

    We're going to have to wait this out until 1) we have a vaccine 2) we have widely available proven drug treatments 3) enough people have survived the virus to stop the spread "herd immunity"

    STAY AT HOME.
     
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  8. gorgo2

    gorgo2 geezerhood

    That's not a modeled projection, right?
     
  9. barbersurgeon

    barbersurgeon Well-Known Member

    No, it's not a projection, it is a graph showing growth in # of cases in the US from 1/22/2020 to yesterday.
     
  10. gorgo2

    gorgo2 geezerhood

    Date 05 Apr 2020 (Sunday afternoon)
    Positive 332,308
    Negative 1,429,724
    Pending 17,307
    Hospitalized 41,372
    Deaths 9,498

    https://covidtracking.com/data

    If I'm reading it right, these numbers are much lower than the models were projecting, but those models are still driving policy decisions.
     
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  11. MileMarker60

    MileMarker60 Member

    Of those 330-350K cases, roughly 19-20k are considered recovered and a estimated 8-9k are considered serious/critical. Which means, for the vast majority it's not serious.
    Now they are talking about it potentially being a seasonal communicable disease like the flu.. The world economy can't shutdown, living in fear, for months every year.

    I follow the worldometer page... mostly because that's the one my friends in the medical community get updated with daily.
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
     
  12. DaltonGang

    DaltonGang Ol' Itchy Whiskers


    Sure, a lot of people have tested positive, and a small proportion has died. But, those numbers are only reflective of those who were tested. A very large proportion of untested people would also test positive for having the virus, or having had the virus. Which, if I understand, lowers the death rate even further.
    So, give those that are scared of the spike, that is supposed to happen, in the next two weeks, a further "Economic Time Out". Then restart the economy, before irreparable harm is done to it.

    .
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2020
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  13. BigMike

    BigMike Well-Known Member

    image%3A33545.png image%3A33546.png
    I've been making reasonably accurate projections here since early February. China showed just how effective quarantining can be, and the world had plenty of time to react but didn't. I suspect that, at high levels of our government, it was understood that there would be a high death count here, but they were politically unable to take action because of the lack of a public mandate and a "it's just the flu," kind of attitude. So, once again, here is the latest death toll and my projections for the coming two weeks. Had we initiated strict social distancing efforts just a few weeks earlier, the US could have had a total death toll under 100 and we'd now be on our way to starting a recovery.
     
    Last edited: Apr 6, 2020
  14. gorgo2

    gorgo2 geezerhood

    To be fair, the reason everyone started later than they should have is China didn't say anything as early as they should have, and then when they did say something via the WHO they were not completely forthcoming. Personally, I don't buy for a nanosecond the Chinese ministry of truth's claims that they're well on the way to recovery...unless they define recovery as mass cremations and every possible source of objective news "mysteriously vanished."
     
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  15. BlueShaver

    BlueShaver Premature Latheration Sufferer

    Yea, it's "Just Flu" and we gotta get back to work right?


    Well, the upside of that curve is one thing but it's the downside which is where the fun is.

    From what I can gather, we all will get this virus sooner or later. It's transmitable with animals and we might just be able to get repeat infections.

    There is no quick exit out of this then except by hard work and most likely, much sacrifice.
     
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  16. barbersurgeon

    barbersurgeon Well-Known Member

    Blaming China for not being forthcoming is missing the mark here. The State Department, Military, and US Intelligence are more than capable of accessing situations around the world. There were warnings.
     
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  17. gorgo2

    gorgo2 geezerhood

    Oh.

    So it's our fault.

    Got it.
     
  18. BigMike

    BigMike Well-Known Member

    Well, I was reading China's official daily reports on their web site (thank you google translate) back in late January and, in my mind, there was plenty of information then on deaths and China's austere quarantine measures to say that that we should have been doing far more. I also read the peer reviewed journal papers in early January from Chinese doctors about the first three cases that occurred in December.
    My wife still has family in China, and I believe that the texts and pictures they send her about a recovery are in earnest.
     
  19. gorgo2

    gorgo2 geezerhood

    By the way. The models were reported to have presumed widespread compliance with social distancing, so that factor was baked in.

    That means the discrepancy (that the actual #s aren't nearly as bad as the doomy projections said they'd be) cannot be explained by people staying away from each other: again, that was assumed.

    That means there's another reason the numbers are much lower.

    Simplest explanation is that the models - which are driving the policies strangling the economy - were unreliable from the get go.
     
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  20. barbersurgeon

    barbersurgeon Well-Known Member

    We have 4.25% of the worlds population and 30 some percent of the Covid-19 cases so far, so yeah we’ve messed something up.
     
    BigMike likes this.
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